- Yorkshire and the Humber needs up to 35,000 additional green workers by 2030.
- Nearly all green apprenticeships taken by young people (96%) lead to jobs that are harder for AI to replace, compared with around three quarters (73%) of apprenticeships overall.
- Just 4.5% of green apprenticeships are linked to occupations most open to AI substitution, compared with 27% of apprenticeships across England – a six-fold difference. [1]
- 94% of the extra clean energy workers the Government says are needed by 2030, such as wind turbine engineers, are in roles at low risk of AI substitution; AI is more likely to support the work than take it over.
- Across the wider green economy, more than 4 in 5 green jobs are in roles less exposed to AI substitution, compared with around 3 in 4 across the UK workforce.
Electricians, engineers and plumbers are among the practical green careers that are comparatively resilient to AI substitution, according to new analysis commissioned by Futerra Solutions Union and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) with analysis provided by the independent consultancy CBI Economics. [2]
The UK is recognised as having a larger share of jobs exposed to AI technologies compared to other economies examined, given the predominance of the service sector including professional services. As AI reshapes the labour market, apprenticeships in ‘green’ industries, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles and heat pumps, offer some of the most comparatively less at-risk career routes, the analysis finds.
The report, (Green Advantage: Employment in an AI-Enabled Economy), [2] finds that green jobs are harder for AI to replace as they largely depend on hands-on skills and practical, real-world work. Green apprenticeships are far more likely to be in jobs that are comparatively resilient to AI substitution, with 96% of these apprenticeships linked to occupations with lower potential for AI substitution, compared with 73% across all apprenticeships.
With over one million young people in the UK currently not in education, employment or training (NEET), [4] the report finds that green apprenticeships could offer a route into lasting careers in the age of AI:
- 96% of green apprenticeships taken by 16–24-year-olds offer routes towards occupations with lower potential for AI substitution.
- 86% are in occupations with low exposure to AI, with a further 9% in jobs where AI is more likely to support workers.
- All ten of the largest apprenticeship routes in established trades where skills are evolving to support green energy (known as ‘mid-green’), such as electricians, engineers and plumbers – are linked to occupations with low AI exposure.
Jessica Rose, Heating Breakdown Engineer, Harrogate, said:
“I’m constantly learning. It’s constantly changing and challenging me, and I love the feeling of getting something up and running again.”
“I don’t think there’s any threat of AI taking over this industry as it’s so human driven and practical. It can support me in my day to day but it still can’t do the job. It can’t fix the problem without me using my hands to do it.”
Green apprenticeships already account for around 32% of apprenticeships among 16–24-year-olds in England, providing an important pipeline for a rapidly expanding workforce. The Government’s Clean Energy Jobs Plan [5] estimates that jobs underpinning green energy sectors and their supply chains could nearly double, from around 440,000 in 2023 to around 860,000 by 2030, with further jobs expected in the net zero economy for example in low carbon transport.
Lucy Shea, CEO of Futerra, said:
“The world faces two unprecedented labour issues. Firstly, the threat of crumbling job security from AI. Secondly, a serious skills shortage for the energy transition. These two narratives are widely debated, but rarely seen as a single story.
“This new research from CBI Economics reveals that green jobs are less exposed to AI disruption. As a CEO, but also a mother of two school-age children, it’s made me think totally differently about what constitutes a good job for them.”
Yet, the report identifies a potential “missing first rung” into these careers. Green apprenticeships are well represented at Level 3 (broadly equivalent to A-levels), but green routes account for less than one in five (19%) of apprenticeship participants at Level 2 (equivalent to GCSE-level). Entry-level routes could provide a vital first step back into work, as evidence [6] shows young people who remain NEET for longer are far less likely to re-enter work or education.
ECIU notes that policy stability and long-term direction are also important for industry investment in the workforce. There have been years of uncertainty around Government energy efficiency schemes, with the flagship Energy Company Obligation scrapped last year, and potential reforms to heat pump and electric vehicle policies could see fewer sold.
Adriana Curca, Director of CBI Economics said:
“Across every part of the green economy we examined, from the apprenticeships young people are starting today to the jobs the transition will need by 2030, the picture is consistent: green jobs are concentrated in occupations with lower potential for AI substitution than the wider workforce. This largely reflects the practical, site-based nature of the work, from installing heat pumps to maintaining electrical systems.
“Demand for these roles is also set to grow, with every region of the UK needing additional clean energy workers by 2030, most of them in established trades that are accessible without a degree. Green apprenticeships already account for around a third of apprenticeship participation among young people in England, so the routes into this work are already well established.”
Renewable energy and low-carbon transport have lower exposure to AI substitution
The pattern of green jobs being at low risk of AI substitution extends beyond apprenticeships to the wider green economy, with more than 4 in 5 (82%) green jobs having lower AI substitution potential, compared with around 3 in 4 of jobs across the UK workforce. The report finds the renewable energy and low-carbon transport sectors have lower potential for AI substitution than the wider economy and both have jobs that can benefit from AI. Renewable energy is around 27% less concentrated in the category with the highest potential for AI substitution than the UK workforce as a whole, and for low-carbon transport that figure is 23%.
Demand for clean energy workers is expected to be spread across the country, with every UK region expected to need additional clean energy workers by 2030. The largest direct workforce needs are projected in:
- Scotland: around 55,000–60,000 clean energy workers required by 2030.
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 30,000 – 35,000.
- South East: 40,000–45,000.
- North West: around 50,000–55,000.
- East of England: around 55,000–60,000.
Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said:
“AI is creating huge uncertainty about the jobs of the future, particularly for young people deciding which path to take. But many of the jobs we need for a cleaner, net zero economy – from electricians and engineers to heating installers – are comparatively AI-proof, offering some hope.
“These are skilled careers that already exist and will increasingly be needed. The challenge is ensuring young people can get onto the first rung of the ladder to access the training they need. There are clearly huge opportunities from AI and many jobs can be turbo-charged by adopting these technologies.”
